Poker Odds Chart
Probability tables every poker player should know
📐 The Rule of 2 and 4
The fastest way to estimate your equity at the table:
On the Flop (2 cards to come)
Outs × 4 = Equity%
Example: 9 outs × 4 = 36% (actual: 35%)
On the Turn (1 card to come)
Outs × 2 = Equity%
Example: 9 outs × 2 = 18% (actual: 19.6%)
🃏 Starting Hand Probabilities
| Hand | Probability | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Any Ace | 15.3% | ~1 in 6.5 |
| Pocket Pair | 5.9% | ~1 in 17 |
| Specific Pair (e.g. AA) | 0.45% | ~1 in 221 |
| AKs | 0.30% | ~1 in 332 |
| AK (suited or off) | 1.2% | ~1 in 83 |
| Suited Cards | 23.5% | ~1 in 4.3 |
| Suited Connectors | 3.9% | ~1 in 25.6 |
| Premium (AA-JJ, AK) | 3.6% | ~1 in 28 |
🎯 Flop Odds
| Situation | Probability | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Flopping a set (with pocket pair) | 11.8% | ~1 in 8.5 |
| Flopping two pair (unpaired hand) | 2.0% | ~1 in 50 |
| Flopping a flush (suited cards) | 0.84% | ~1 in 119 |
| Flopping a flush draw (suited) | 10.9% | ~1 in 9 |
| Flopping at least a pair (unpaired) | 32.4% | ~1 in 3 |
| Flopping a straight (connected cards) | 1.3% | ~1 in 77 |
| Flopping an OESD | 9.6% | ~1 in 10.4 |
| Complete miss (no pair, no draw) | ~33% | ~1 in 3 |
📊 Drawing Odds
Probability of completing your draw
| Draw Type | Turn Only | River Only | Turn + River |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flush draw (9 outs) | 19.1% | 19.6% | 35.0% |
| OESD (8 outs) | 17.0% | 17.4% | 31.5% |
| Two overcards (6 outs) | 12.8% | 13.0% | 24.1% |
| Gutshot (4 outs) | 8.5% | 8.7% | 16.5% |
| One overcard (3 outs) | 6.4% | 6.5% | 12.5% |
| Set (pocket pair, 2 outs) | 4.3% | 4.3% | 8.4% |
| Runner-runner flush | — | — | 4.2% |
📌 Key Takeaways
- • You only get premium hands ~3.6% of the time — patience is key
- • With a pocket pair, you flop a set ~12% of the time — that is why set mining is profitable
- • A flush draw has ~35% equity with 2 cards to come — call if getting 2:1 or better
- • You miss the flop completely ~33% of the time — this is normal, don't force it
- • Rule of 2 and 4 is accurate enough for real-time decisions at the table