Poker Odds Chart
How often does each thing happen at the table? Probability tables every poker player should know.
The odds that come up most
Each picture is 100 deals: the gold dots are how often it happens.
You are dealt a pocket pair
- Hit: 6
- Miss
Two cards of the same rank before the flop.
Exact · all 1,326 two-card hands
You are dealt a premium hand
- Hit: 3
- Miss
AA, KK, QQ, JJ or AK: the hands you raise from any seat.
Exact · all 1,326 two-card hands
A pocket pair flops a set or better
- Hit: 12
- Miss
Why small pairs call to hit a set, then win big.
Exact · all 19,600 flops
Two unpaired cards flop a pair or better
- Hit: 32
- Miss
About one flop in three. The other two times, you have no pair.
Exact · all 19,600 flops
Two unpaired cards flop nothing at all
- Hit: 53
- Miss
No pair and no draw. This is the usual flop: don't force it.
Exact · every unpaired hand, all 19,600 flops
A flush draw on the flop comes in by the river
- Hit: 35
- Miss
Nine cards of your suit are left among the 47 you can't see. A flush draw is worth a call at the right price.
Exact · 9 outs, two cards to come
The Rule of 2 and 4
The fastest way to estimate your equity at the table:
Starting Hand Probabilities
| Hand | Probability | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| At least one ace | 14.9% | ~1 in 6.7 |
| Pocket Pair | 5.9% | ~1 in 17 |
| Specific Pair (e.g. AA) | 0.45% | ~1 in 221 |
| AKs | 0.30% | ~1 in 332 |
| AK (suited or off) | 1.2% | ~1 in 83 |
| Suited Cards | 23.5% | ~1 in 4.3 |
| Suited connectors (32s–AKs, plus A2s) | 3.9% | ~1 in 25.5 |
| Premium (AA–JJ, AK) | 3.0% | ~1 in 33 |
Flop Odds
| Situation | Probability | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Flopping a set (with pocket pair) | 11.8% | ~1 in 8.5 |
| Flopping two pair (unpaired hand) | 2.0% | ~1 in 50 |
| Flopping a flush (suited cards) | 0.84% | ~1 in 119 |
| Flopping a flush draw (suited) | 10.9% | ~1 in 9 |
| Flopping at least a pair (unpaired) | 32.4% | ~1 in 3 |
| Flopping a straight (connected cards) | 1.3% | ~1 in 77 |
| Flopping an open-ended draw (T9s) | 9.71% | ~1 in 10.3 |
| Miss with T9s (no pair, open-ender, flush draw or made hand) | 49.4% | ~1 in 2.0 |
Drawing Odds
Probability of completing your draw
| Draw Type | Turn Only | River Only | Turn + River |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flush draw (9 outs) | 19.1% | 19.6% | 35.0% |
| OESD (8 outs) | 17.0% | 17.4% | 31.5% |
| Two overcards (6 outs) | 12.8% | 13.0% | 24.1% |
| Gutshot (4 outs) | 8.5% | 8.7% | 16.5% |
| One overcard (3 outs) | 6.4% | 6.5% | 12.5% |
| Set (pocket pair, 2 outs) | 4.3% | 4.3% | 8.4% |
| Runner-runner flush | – | – | 4.2% |
Key Takeaways
- • You only get premium hands 3.0% of the time, so patience is key
- • With a pocket pair, you flop a set ~12% of the time, which is why set mining is profitable
- • A flush draw has ~35% equity with 2 cards to come: call if getting 2:1 or better
- • With unpaired cards, more than half of all flops give you nothing: no pair, no draw. This is normal, don't force it
- • Rule of 2 and 4 is accurate enough for real-time decisions at the table
How to use poker odds at the table
Odds tables are useless if you can't remember them at the table. This section gives you the mental shortcuts (rule of 2 and 4), the most-asked draw equities you'll actually face, and worked examples that show how to use the numbers in real decisions.
Prefer paper? Download the printable PDF version of this chart: free, A4, no email required.
The rule of 2 and 4 (the only math you need at the table)
You don't need to memorize the entire chart. The rule of 2 and 4 is the shortcut that gets you within ~2% of true equity in seconds:
- → On the flop (2 cards to come, turn + river):
outs × 4≈ % to hit by river. - → On the turn (1 card to come, river only):
outs × 2≈ % to hit on river.
Worked example: You have a flush draw on the flop. You have 9 outs (the 9 remaining cards of your suit). Rule of 4: 9 × 4 = 36% to hit by the river. True mathematical equity: 35%. Off by 1%, well within decision quality.
When the rule overestimates: with very large draws (15+ outs), 4× starts to over-shoot. 15 outs by rule = 60%; actual = ~54%. Apply a small mental correction for huge draws. For the typical 4-9 out draws, the rule is dead-accurate enough.
See our dedicated rule of 2 and 4 article for a full breakdown.
Common draws and their equities
Memorize these: they account for ~80% of postflop decisions. A chart assumes every out is live; against a real hand some are not (a flush card that also fills your opponent's full house). The poker outs calculator deals every remaining card against the actual hand and counts the outs you really have.
| Draw | Outs | Flop → River | Turn → River |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flush draw | 9 | 35% | 19.6% |
| Open-ended straight (OESD) | 8 | 31.5% | 17.4% |
| Flush + OESD combo | 15 | 54.1% | 32.6% |
| Two overcards | 6 | 24.1% | 13.0% |
| Gutshot straight draw | 4 | 16.5% | 8.7% |
| Double gutshot | 8 | 31.5% | 17.4% |
| Pair to set (pocket pair) | 2 | 8.4% | 4.3% |
| Pair to two pair | 5 | 20.4% | 10.9% |
| Backdoor flush + straight | ~3 | ~4-5% | – |
Postflop scenarios with worked math
Scenario 1: Flush draw vs single bet
You have A♠K♠ on a board of Q♠7♠2♣. You have a nut flush draw (9 outs to the nuts). Pot is $50. Opponent bets $25.
- Equity needed (pot odds): $25 / ($50 + $25 + $25) = $25 / $100 = 25%
- Your equity: 9 outs × 4 = 36% (rule of 2 and 4 on the flop)
- Verdict: Call. 36% > 25%, so the call is +EV by 11%. Clear.
Scenario 2: Gutshot vs overbet
You have 8♣9♣ on T♠ J♥ 2♦. You have a gutshot straight draw (4 outs: any 7 makes the straight). Pot is $30. Opponent overbets $50.
- Equity needed: $50 / ($30 + $50 + $50) = $50 / $130 = 38.5%
- Your equity: 4 outs × 4 = 16%
- Verdict: Fold. 16% way below 38.5%: clear fold even with implied odds.
Scenario 3: Set on a flush board
You have 7♠7♣ on 7♥9♥2♥. You have top set but the board is monotone (3 of one suit). Opponent bets pot.
- If they have a flush: you have 10 outs to a full house or quads (board pair = 7 → 4 + 3 + 3 = 10). 10 × 4 = 40% equity.
- Pot odds: 33% (pot-sized bet).
- Verdict: Call. 40% > 33%. Even if you're drawing, you have correct odds.
Use our odds calculator for exact equity vs specific opponent ranges.
Runner-runner: when both turn AND river must come
Backdoor draws (where you need 2 specific cards on consecutive streets) have much lower equity than they look:
- → Runner-runner flush (3 to a flush on flop): ~4.2% to make the flush by river.
- → Runner-runner straight (1 card needed each on turn AND river): ~1.5-3% depending on connectedness.
- → Runner-runner backdoor flush + overcard: ~6-8% combined equity.
The math: P(runner-runner) ≈ (outs1 / 47) × (outs2 / 46). Two coin flips, both must hit. Always low.
Don't make a play primarily on runner-runner equity. But DO factor it in when you're getting good pot odds: adding 4-8% equity to a borderline call can flip the EV math.
What you actually flop with each starting hand
Exact: every one of the 19,600 possible flops dealt to each hand and classified with the same evaluator the calculators use.
| Starting hand | What you flop most often |
|---|---|
| Pocket pair (99) | Set or better: 11.76%. Overpair (every board card below 9): 16.71%. At least one overcard on the board: 71.53%. |
| AKo | An ace or a king: 32.43%. Both an ace and a king: 2.11%. Neither: 67.57%. |
| AKs | An ace or a king: 32.43%. Flush draw: 10.94%. Flopped flush: 0.84%. Any of those: 42.53%. |
| Suited connector (T♣9♣) | A pair or better: 32.43%. Open-ended straight draw: 9.71%. Gutshot: 16.82%. Flush draw: 10.94%. A pair, an open-ender, a flush draw or a made hand: 50.61%. |
| Offsuit broadway (KQo) | A pair or better: 32.43%. Open-ended straight draw: 3.02%. Gutshot: 12.73%. None of a pair, open-ender or made hand: 64.39%. |
How to actually use these numbers in real decisions
Three frameworks for converting odds → action:
1. Equity vs pot odds (the call/fold lens)
The most common decision: opponent bets, do you call? Calculate your hand equity (rule of 2/4), calculate pot odds (bet ÷ final pot), call if equity > pot odds.
2. Implied odds (when stacks are deep)
With deep stacks, you might have 36% equity but you'll WIN extra bets when you hit. Add 5-10% effective equity for implied odds. Set-mining classically uses this: pure pot odds say fold a small pair to a 3-bet, but implied odds (stacks 100bb deep) make it a clear call.
3. Reverse implied odds (when your draw is dirty)
Sometimes hitting your card LOSES you more money. A non-nut flush draw on a paired board: even if you make the flush, an opponent with a higher flush or a full house extracts your stack. Subtract 5-10% effective equity for reverse implied odds in spots where you're drawing to a non-nut hand.
Frequently asked questions
How often will I flop a flush draw with suited cards?›
About 10.9% of the time, roughly 1 in 9. With 2 suited hole cards, you have a flush draw on the flop when 2 of the 3 board cards match your suit. The flush COMPLETES on the flop only 0.84% of the time (1 in 119).
How often does a flush draw complete?›
From the flop with 9 outs and 2 cards to come: 35%. From the turn with 1 card to come: 19.6%. The rule of 4 says 36%; the actual answer is 35%. The rule slightly overestimates because the second draw shares cards with the first.
What are 'outs' in poker?›
Outs are the cards that complete your draw or improve your hand to the likely winner. A flush draw has 9 outs (remaining cards of your suit). An open-ended straight draw has 8 outs (4 cards on each end). Two overcards have 6 outs (3 of each rank).
Is the rule of 2 and 4 always accurate?›
It's accurate within ~2% for typical situations (4-12 outs). For huge draws (15+ outs), it slightly overestimates because you can't double-count outs that improve to multiple categories. For most real-world draws, the rule is dead-accurate enough.
How often do you flop a set with a pocket pair?›
11.76%, roughly 1 in 8.5 hands. This is why set-mining is profitable: you're a 7.5-to-1 underdog, so you need at least 8x your call back in implied odds when set-mining a small pair.
How often do you make a pair on the flop?›
With unpaired hole cards (like AK or 89s): 32.4%, about 1 in 3 flops. With a pocket pair, you already have a pair pre-flop, so 'flopping a pair' becomes 'improving': 11.8% to a set, 0.24% to quads.
What's the rarest thing to flop?›
Flopping the nuts. Flopping a Royal Flush directly: ~0.0008%. Flopping quads with a pocket pair: 0.24%. Flopping a straight flush from suited connectors: 0.022%. These spots are why poker has variance: you're chasing tiny low-frequency events.
How often do you completely miss the flop?›
About 52.8% of the time with two unpaired cards: averaged over every unpaired starting hand and all 19,600 flops, that is how often the flop brings no pair, no straight draw (a gutshot counts), no flush draw from two suited cards and nothing made. It runs from 37.6% for JTs to 63.0% for K2o. This is normal and why c-betting wide is profitable: most opponents miss too.
Related
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Step-by-step examples for flop, turn, river decisions.
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