What Are the Odds of Set Over Set?
When two players both hold a pocket pair and both see the flop, set over set happens about 1.04% of the time — roughly 1 in 96. That is the number behind almost every "I flopped a set and still lost" story.
The odds
| Measured as | Probability | Odds | Per 100 hands |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both players hold a pocket pair and see the flopheadline | 1.04% | 1 in 96 | — |
| Somewhere at a 6-max table, per deal | 0.053% | 1 in 1,875 | 0.05 |
| Somewhere at a 9-handed table, per deal | 0.127% | 1 in 786 | 0.13 |
What we measured
Set over set means two players each flop three of a kind of different ranks — each holds a pocket pair (e.g. 9-9 and 5-5) and each pairs the board on the flop, so both have a set at the same time. The headline figure is conditional: it assumes both players were dealt pocket pairs and both saw the flop. The table figures below assume every player dealt a pocket pair sees the flop.
How it was calculated
Exact combinatorics for the conditional figure (180 favourable flops out of C(48,3) = 17,296). Monte Carlo for the per-deal table figures.
Computed 2026-07-12 using app/lib/poker-eval.js — the same 7-card evaluator behind /tools/odds-calculator. Want to test a specific matchup? Run it through the odds & equity calculator.
When two players both hold a pocket pair and both see the flop, set over set happens about 1.04% of the time — roughly 1 in 96. That is the number behind almost every "I flopped a set and still lost" story.
https://pokerpro.tools/odds/set-over-setDrop it in your poker chat, home-game thread, or the next bad-beat argument.
Frequently asked questions
How often does set over set happen?+
If two players both hold pocket pairs and both see the flop, set over set occurs about 1.04% of the time — about 1 in 96. Across a whole 9-handed table it lands somewhere on the felt roughly 1 in 786 deals, assuming every pocket pair sees the flop.
Is set over set really a one-percenter?+
Yes. The famous "about 1%" figure is the conditional case: both players already hold pocket pairs and reach the flop. Our exact count puts it at 1.04%, so the folklore is right for once.
What are the odds of set under set?+
Set under set is the same event seen from the loser's chair — you have the smaller set. Whenever set over set happens, exactly one player has the under set, so the odds are identical: about 1 in 96 when both players hold pairs and see the flop.