AA vs JJ: Who Wins? Exact Odds
AA wins about 81.1% of the time (JJ 18.9%, ties 0.4%), roughly a 4.3-to-1 favorite. That number is exact: every suit combination and all 1,712,304 possible boards per configuration were enumerated.
Win, tie, loss
Share of all possible runouts across every suit combination (36 combo pairs). Equity adds half the ties to each side: AA 81.15%, JJ 18.85%.
Equity by suit configuration
AA vs JJ81.15% / 18.85%
| Suit configuration | Combos | AA equity | JJ equity |
|---|---|---|---|
A♠A♥ vs J♠J♦ one shared suit: one of JJ's flush suits only makes flushes AA beats | 24 | 81.15% | 18.85% |
A♠A♥ vs J♠J♥ both suits shared: every flush JJ makes, AA makes bigger | 6 | 81.82% | 18.18% |
A♠A♥ vs J♦J♣ no shared suits: JJ has two live flush suits | 6 | 80.47% | 19.53% |
| All AA vs JJ combos | 36 | 81.15% | 18.85% |
Each row is a suit-isomorphism class: relabeling the four suits doesn't change equity, so every combo in a row has the identical, exactly-enumerated number. “Combos” counts the hand-vs-hand combinations the row represents.
Why JJ is in so much trouble
Both players hold a made pair, but only one of them is winning unimproved, and pocket pairs rarely improve. JJ has exactly two set cards left in the deck, seen on the board just 19.9% of the time, and even a jack doesn't guarantee the pot on straight- or flush-heavy runouts. Meanwhile AA needs nothing: it can check-snooze to the river and still win most showdowns. That asymmetry is the whole story of pair-over-pair "coolers".
- JJ's main lifeline is one of the two remaining jacks, and at least one lands on the board only 19.9% of the time. The rest of its 18.9% comes from straights, flushes and runout quirks.
- Suits shift the matchup by 1.3 points: JJ does best with no shared suits (19.5%, with two live flush suits) and worst when both suits are shared (18.2%, because every flush it makes loses to a bigger one).
- Dropping from QQ to JJ buys the underdog almost nothing: JJ wins 18.9% against aces vs 18.5% for QQ.
How it was calculated
Exact enumeration, not simulation: for every suit configuration above, all 1,712,304 possible five-card boards were dealt and both hands scored with app/lib/poker-eval.js, the same 7-card evaluator behind /tools/odds-calculator. Ties split the pot, so equity is win% plus half the tie%. Computed 2026-07-27.
Don't take our word for it: run AA vs JJ yourself in the odds calculator and watch the Monte Carlo estimate converge on these numbers.
Frequently asked questions
How often does JJ beat AA?+
18.9% of the time, about 1 in 5.3. JJ wins 18.6% of boards outright and chops 0.4%.
Do suits matter in AA vs JJ?+
A little. With no shared suits JJ gets 19.5%; with both suits shared it falls to 18.2% because its flush outs are dead. The full breakdown is in the table above.
Is AA vs JJ really 80/20?+
Almost exactly. The precise all-suits figure is 81.1% vs 18.9% with 0.4% ties, so "four to one" is a fair way to say it at the table.