Doyle Brunson Hand (10-2): The Story and the Odds
The Doyle Brunson hand is 10-2, ten-deuce, named after the Texas player who held it on the last hand of both his World Series of Poker Main Event wins, in 1976 and 1977, and made a full house each time. It is a weak hand: 10-2 offsuit has 41.67% equity against one random hand and ranks 135 of the 169 starting hands, and it makes a full house or better on 2.37% of boards. In 1976 he was behind when the money went in. In 1977, on the reported cards, he was ahead.
What is the Doyle Brunson hand?
Ten-deuce, two cards that a sound player folds nearly every time. It carries the name of Doyle Brunson, known as Texas Dolly, who won ten World Series bracelets and died in 2023. PokerNews and Wikipedia both give the same reason for the name: he won both of his Main Event titles, in 1976 and 1977, with those two cards on the last hand.
1976: ten-deuce wins the Main Event
The 1976 Main Event had 22 players at $10,000 each, winner take all, and Brunson took $220,000. Heads-up with Jesse Alto, he called a raise with the ten and deuce of spades, and Alto had ace-jack. The accounts agree on the board and differ on when the money went in. Brunson's autobiography, excerpted by ESPN, and Card Player's 2008 recap have him calling on the flop and moving all in on the turn, when the deuce gave him two pair. Wikipedia's page on that year and one Pokerati piece put the all-in on the flop; a later Pokerati piece has it on the turn. Brunson wrote that he thought his two pair was good. It was not: Alto called with aces and jacks.
| Street | Board | Brunson | Alto | Brunson's equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before the flop | None | 10-2 suited | Ace-jack | 35.95% or 34.40% |
| Flop | A♥ J♠ 10♥ | A pair of tens | Aces and jacks | 12.63% |
| Turn | A♥ J♠ 10♥ 2♣ | Tens and deuces | Aces and jacks | 9.09% |
| River | A♥ J♠ 10♥ 2♣ 10♦ | Tens full of deuces | Aces and jacks | 100% |
Exact counts, every remaining board, ties split. The accounts differ on Alto's ace: Wikipedia and the earlier Pokerati piece give the ace of clubs, for 35.95% before the flop, and Card Player the ace of spades, for 34.40%. From the flop on the suit changes nothing. Either way Brunson was behind when the chips went in. On the turn he had 4 outs of the 44 unseen cards, the last two tens and the last two deuces. He calls that an 11-to-1 shot in his book; 40 cards to 4 is 10 to 1. The ten of diamonds came.
1977: the same hand wins again
The next year 34 players entered and Brunson took $340,000, and the last hand was 10-2 again, this time against Gary "Bones" Berland with 8-5. The flop came 10-8-5, which gave Berland two pair and Brunson top pair, and both checked. The turn was a deuce. Brunson bet, Berland moved all in and Brunson called, and a ten on the river made his full house. Card Player's recap and Mac Poker Online tell it that way.
| Street | Board | Brunson | Berland | Brunson's equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before the flop | None | 10-2 offsuit | 8-5 offsuit | 56.92% |
| Flop | 10-8-5 | A pair of tens | Eights and fives | 25.45% |
| Turn | 10-8-5-2 | Tens and deuces | Eights and fives | 90.91% |
| River | 10-8-5-2-10 | Tens full of deuces | Eights and fives | 100% |
Exact counts, ties split. The suits are not reliable: Card Player prints the eight of spades and the five of hearts both in Berland's hand and on the flop, which cannot be, so this table is read from the ranks. Before the flop it averages all 144 combinations of the two hands offsuit, which is how Wikipedia lists Brunson's. The flop and turn rows have no flush possible. Over all 20,736 suitings of the turn he had between 70.45% and 90.91%, and over all 6,912 of the flop between 24.55% and 50.91%, the top of that needing a suited 10-2 the accounts do not support.
Was Brunson an underdog both times?
Not on the reported cards. Retellings, Wikipedia's page on him among them, say he completed a full house as an underdog in both final hands. That fits 1976. In 1977 the turn deuce put his tens and deuces ahead of Berland's eights and fives before the money went in: with no flush possible, 40 of the 44 river cards left him ahead and Berland needed one of 4, an eight or a five. So the ten on the river made the full house everyone remembers, and he did not need it. Before the flop he was the favourite too, 56.92%, with the higher card.
How good is 10-2 really? Equity against 1 to 5 players
Not good. 10-2 offsuit ranks 135 of 169 by equity against one random hand, and suited 118. That is better than 7-2, the hand with a side game of its own, which has 34.58%, and it is still short of an even share against a single random hand:
| Hand | vs 1 | vs 3 | vs 5 | Rank by vs 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-2 offsuit | 41.67% | 17.3% | 10.6% | 135 of 169 |
| 10-2 suited | 44.84% | 21.5% | 14.9% | 118 of 169 |
Equity counts a tie as half a pot, so it is not a win rate. The vs 1 column is exact; vs 3 and vs 5 are simulated, with a standard error under 0.02 points.
How often 10-2 makes a full house
Rarely. Of all 2,118,760 boards, 10-2 ends with a full house 2.22% of the time, and with a full house or better 2.37%, about 1 in 42.3. Holding it on two hands, both end that way 1 time in 1,786. It usually makes one pair, 45.86% of the time, or two pair, 22.79%, and it finishes with nothing 19.48% of the time. The suit is worth more than anything else about it: a flush 6.57% of the time suited, against 1.96% offsuit. A full house is not safe either, as Zeebo's theorem counts.
| Final hand | Offsuit | Suited | Offsuit wins vs 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Straight flush | 0.02% | 0.02% | 90.20% |
| Four of a kind | 0.13% | 0.13% | 85.39% |
| Full house | 2.22% | 2.22% | 84.05% |
| Flush | 1.96% | 6.57% | 70.90% |
| Straight | 3.10% | 2.89% | 72.75% |
| Three of a kind | 4.45% | 4.37% | 66.50% |
| Two pair | 22.79% | 22.26% | 58.85% |
| One pair | 45.86% | 43.54% | 32.78% |
| High card | 19.48% | 18.01% | 11.31% |
Exact counts over every board of the other 50 cards, for every combination of the hand. The last column is a win rate against one random hand, not equity: a tie does not count as a win.
Should you ever play 10-2?
Almost never at a full table. It is in none of the 24 ranges in the site's range library, from any seat; its own pages are 10-2 offsuit and 10-2 suited. Brunson had it heads-up at the end of a tournament, where any two cards can be worth playing. Two cases remain:
- •Very short stacks: in the heads-up push/fold chart the small blind shoves 10-2 offsuit only at 1 to 3 big blinds and suited at 1 to 6, and the big blind calls a shove at 1 to 3 and 1 to 4.
- •In the big blind against a late open: a 2.5x button open asks for 27.3% equity to call, and against the library's button range 10-2 offsuit has 30.8% and suited 34.5%. That clears the price on paper, and the library folds both anyway: the figure is all-in equity, simulated with 60,000 deals per pair of hand classes, and out of position a hand this weak does not realise it.
Other poker hands named after players
Brunson's belongs to a small group: Main Event winners whose last hand took their name, as Wikipedia's list of poker hand nicknames records. Some of them were weak hands too:
| Player | Year | Hole cards | Equity vs 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Hellmuth | 1989 | 9♠ 9♣ | 72.06% |
| Stu Ungar | 1997 | A♥ 4♣ | 56.73% |
| Chris Ferguson | 2000 | A♠ 9♣ | 60.77% |
| Robert Varkonyi | 2002 | Q♦ 10♠ | 57.29% |
| Chris Moneymaker | 2003 | 5♦ 4♠ | 38.16% |
| Joe Hachem | 2005 | 7♣ 3♠ | 36.60% |
The cards are as Wikipedia's list of Main Event champions gives them. The last column is the exact equity of that hand against one random hand, which tells you what the cards were worth before the board, not how the final went.
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Frequently asked
What is the Doyle Brunson hand?
10-2, ten-deuce. It is named after Doyle Brunson, who won the World Series of Poker Main Event in 1976 and 1977 holding those two cards on the last hand, and made a full house both times.
Did Doyle Brunson win with 10-2 twice?
Yes. He beat Jesse Alto with it in 1976 and Gary Berland in 1977. It was suited the first time, the ten and deuce of spades, and offsuit the second, by the cards Wikipedia lists.
Was Doyle Brunson the underdog with 10-2?
In 1976, yes: on the turn he had 9.09% equity, 4 outs of 44. In 1977, on the reported cards, no: the turn gave him the better two pair, 90.91% with no flush possible, before the money went in.
Is 10-2 a good hand?
No. 10-2 offsuit has 41.67% equity against one random hand and 17.3% against three, and it ranks 135 of 169 starting hands. Suited it has 44.84%.
How often does 10-2 make a full house?
A full house 2.22% of the time and a full house or better 2.37% of the time by the river, about 1 in 42.3, counted over all 2,118,760 boards.
Should you play 10-2 in Texas Hold'em?
Almost never. The site's range library holds it in none of its 24 ranges. The heads-up push/fold chart shoves it only at very short stacks.
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