Overcards vs pair

Ace-King vs a Pocket Pair: Who Wins? Exact Odds

Ace-king is never the favorite against a pocket pair — but it's almost never crushed either. Against every pair from 22 to QQ, AK holds between 43.8% and 48.0% equity (a race). Against KK it drops to 31.1%, and against AA just 8.2% — that's domination, not a race.

AK against every pocket pair

Pocket pairAK equity (any suits)AKsAKoFull page
AA8.16%12.14%6.83%AA vs AK
KK31.12%34.11%30.12%AK vs KK
QQ43.94%46.05%43.24%AK vs QQ
JJ43.85%45.96%43.15%AK vs JJ
TT43.83%45.94%43.12%AK vs TT
9945.40%47.42%44.73%AK vs 99
8845.51%47.52%44.84%
7745.68%47.69%45.02%
6645.68%47.69%45.01%
5546.05%48.03%45.38%
4446.62%48.59%45.97%
3347.27%49.21%46.62%
2247.99%49.89%47.35%22 vs AK

Equity is ace-king's share of the pot, all-in preflop, ties split. Every figure is an exact enumeration across all suit configurations — no simulation.

A race against eleven pairs, a beating by two

Against pairs that don't share its ranks (22–QQ), ace-king has six live outs plus straight and flush potential — one of its overcards reaches the board 50.3% of the time, which is why every one of those matchups sits near the flip line. Its best matchup is 22 (48.0%) and its worst race is against TT (43.8%), because bigger pairs block AK's broadway straight cards. KK and AA are a different sport: they turn AK's own ranks against it, and the "race" becomes 31.1% and 8.2%. Before you snap-call a shove with AK, the only question that really matters is how often villain shows up with exactly those two hands.

  • The race band is remarkably narrow: from deuces to queens, AK's all-suits equity never leaves the 43.8%–48.0% window. Which specific pair you're flipping against barely matters.
  • The cliff is at kings: AK's equity falls from 43.9% vs QQ to 31.1% vs KK and 8.2% vs AA. The moment the pair shares one of AK's ranks, card removal kills half (or all) of its pairing outs.
  • Being suited adds about 3.0 points on average across all thirteen pairs — real money in an all-in, but never enough to make AK the favorite.

How it was calculated

Exact enumeration, not simulation: for every suit configuration above, all 1,712,304 possible five-card boards were dealt and both hands scored with app/lib/poker-eval.js — the same 7-card evaluator behind /tools/odds-calculator. Ties split the pot, so equity is win% plus half the tie%. Computed 2026-07-27.

Don't take our word for it — run AK vs a Pocket Pair yourself in the odds calculator and watch the Monte Carlo estimate converge on these numbers.

Frequently asked questions

Is AK a favorite against pocket pairs?+

No — against every pocket pair AK is at best even. It gets 43.8%–48.0% against pairs 22 through QQ, 31.1% against KK, and 8.2% against AA. Suited AK does about 3.0 points better than offsuit on average.

Which pocket pair is best against AK?+

AA, at 91.8% — it turns AK's pairing outs into losers. Among the "race" pairs, TT does best (56.2%) and 22 does worst (52.0%), mainly due to broadway blockers.

Should you get AK all-in preflop?+

The equity table is only half the answer — the other half is villain's range. Against a range of pairs 22–QQ plus worse aces, AK is in fine shape; against a range of exactly KK and AA it's being beaten badly. That's a range question, so build villain's shoving range in our range equity calculator rather than memorizing a single number.

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