AK vs TT: Who Wins? Exact Odds
TT wins — but barely. All-in preflop, pocket tens beat ace-king about 56.2% of the time across all suit combinations: 56.9% against AKo and 54.1% against AKs. It is a genuine race, and the pair is always the slight favorite.
Win, tie, loss
Share of all possible runouts across every suit combination (96 combo pairs). Equity adds half the ties to each side: AK 43.8%, TT 56.2%.
Equity by suit configuration
AKo vs TT43.1% / 56.9%
| Suit configuration | Combos | AKo equity | TT equity |
|---|---|---|---|
A♠K♥ vs T♥T♦ T♥ shares the king's suit | 24 | 43.12% | 56.88% |
A♠K♥ vs T♠T♦ T♠ shares the ace's suit | 24 | 43.12% | 56.88% |
A♠K♥ vs T♠T♥ T♠ shares the ace's suit; T♥ shares the king's suit | 12 | 43.52% | 56.48% |
A♠K♥ vs T♦T♣ no shared suits — every backdoor flush is live | 12 | 42.72% | 57.28% |
| All AKo vs TT combos | 72 | 43.12% | 56.88% |
AKs vs TT45.9% / 54.1%
| Suit configuration | Combos | AKs equity | TT equity |
|---|---|---|---|
A♠K♠ vs T♥T♦ no AK flush-suit card in the other hand — the flush draw is fully live | 12 | 46.11% | 53.89% |
A♠K♠ vs T♠T♥ T♠ blocks one card of AK's flush suit | 12 | 45.77% | 54.23% |
| All AKs vs TT combos | 24 | 45.94% | 54.06% |
Each row is a suit-isomorphism class: relabeling the four suits doesn't change equity, so every combo in a row has the identical, exactly-enumerated number. “Combos” counts the hand-vs-hand combinations the row represents.
Why the race is this close
A made pair starts ahead of two unpaired cards — even the best two. AK catches up by pairing an ace or a king (one arrives on the board 50.3% of the time) or by making a straight or flush. But TT redraws too: when AK pairs, the pocket pair can still spike a set, and on blank runouts the pair simply holds. Add it all up and pocket tens land at 56.2%, ace-king at 43.8% — closer than "you're behind" makes it sound, further than "it's a pure flip".
- AK still takes the pot 43.8% of the time. The total gap is only 12.3 equity points — compare AA vs KK, where the gap is 63.9 points. "You're behind" costs far less here than in a real cooler.
- Suits are worth real equity: AKs has 45.9% against TT vs 43.1% for AKo — 2.8 points just for being suited. Exact suit layout moves the number from 42.7% to 46.1%.
- An ace or king reaches the board 50.3% of the time, yet AKo's equity is only 43.1% — TT sometimes redraws to a set or straight even when AK pairs, and the tens block one of the cards AK needs for a broadway straight.
How it was calculated
Exact enumeration, not simulation: for every suit configuration above, all 1,712,304 possible five-card boards were dealt and both hands scored with app/lib/poker-eval.js — the same 7-card evaluator behind /tools/odds-calculator. Ties split the pot, so equity is win% plus half the tie%. Computed 2026-07-27.
Don't take our word for it — run AK vs TT yourself in the odds calculator and watch the Monte Carlo estimate converge on these numbers.
Frequently asked questions
Who wins AK vs TT all-in preflop?+
TT is the favorite. Across every suit combination TT wins 56.0% of boards outright, AK wins 43.6%, and 0.4% are ties — total pot equity of 56.2% vs 43.8%. Exact enumeration of all 1,712,304 possible boards per suit configuration.
Is AK vs TT a coin flip?+
Close enough that players call it one. AK has 43.1% equity offsuit and 45.9% suited — inside the 45–55% band most players consider a flip, but the pair's edge is real and constant.
Does suited matter in AK vs TT?+
Yes. AKs earns 45.9% vs 43.1% for AKo — a 2.8-point difference. Even within one class the exact suits matter: from 42.7% in the worst layout to 46.1% in the best (see the configuration table).
How often do AK vs TT tie?+
0.4% of runouts end in a chopped pot — usually a straight or board-dominated hand both players share.