Poker Variance Simulator
How big can your downswing get? How long until your win rate "converges"? Pick your numbers and see what variance actually looks like.
Your Stats
3
100
50k
50
Quick Presets
50 sample paths over 50k hands
winning paths losing paths
Expected
+1500 bb
Winning %
66%
5th percentile
-1921 bb
95th percentile
+4649 bb
Worst downswing seen
-5124 bb
512σ swing
Best path final
+7323 bb
Worst path final
-2298 bb
Median
+1166 bb
How to read this: Each thin line is one possible future given your stats. The bright green line is the luckiest path; the bright red is the unluckiest. The dashed amber line is your expected EV.
If "Winning %" is below 80% you're going to feel variance hard. If your worst path looks terrifying, that's normal — it's the 50-out-of-50 bad-luck sample. Real downswings tracking-wise tend to fall between the 5th percentile line and the worst path.