Poker Variance Simulator
How big can your downswing get? How long until your win rate "converges"? Pick your numbers and see what variance actually looks like.
Your Stats
3
100
50k
50
Quick Presets
50 sample paths over 50k hands
winning paths losing paths
Expected
+1500 bb
Winning %
78%
5th percentile
-2447 bb
95th percentile
+5490 bb
Worst downswing seen
-6784 bb
678σ swing
Best path final
+6708 bb
Worst path final
-4068 bb
Median
+1916 bb
How to read this: Each thin line is one possible future given your stats. The bright green line is the luckiest path; the bright red is the unluckiest. The dashed amber line is your expected EV.
If "Winning %" is below 80% you're going to feel variance hard. If your worst path looks terrifying, that's normal — it's the 50-out-of-50 bad-luck sample. Real downswings tracking-wise tend to fall between the 5th percentile line and the worst path.