Poker Variance Calculator
How big can your downswing get? How long until your win rate "converges"? Pick your numbers and see what variance actually looks like.
Your Stats
Quick Presets
50 sample paths over 50k hands
How to read this: Each thin line is one possible future given your stats. The bright green line is the luckiest path; the bright red is the unluckiest. The dashed amber line is your expected EV.
If "Winning %" is below 80% you're going to feel variance hard. If your worst path looks terrifying, that's normal — it's the 50-out-of-50 bad-luck sample. Real downswings tracking-wise tend to fall between the 5th percentile line and the worst path.
We ran this exact per-hand model for 70 billion hands: 81% of true 3bb/100 winners hit a 20+ buy-in downswing within 100k hands — see the full downswing odds study.
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