Poker math

Variance in Poker — Formula, Examples & Quick Math

Variance is a math concept that turns gut decisions into +EV ones. Here's how to actually use it at the table.

Quick answer

Variance — The natural ups and downs of poker results around your true win rate.

In more detail

Even a strong winner can run badly for tens of thousands of hands. Standard deviation in NLHE cash is ~100 BB/100 — normal downswings of 20+ buy-ins.

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Common questions

What does Variance mean in poker?

Even a strong winner can run badly for tens of thousands of hands. Standard deviation in NLHE cash is ~100 BB/100 — normal downswings of 20+ buy-ins.

When should I use Variance in a hand?

Variance matters most when bet sizes and pot odds are close to your equity. In obvious folds and obvious calls, the math is just confirmation. Reserve mental effort for borderline spots.

What's the fastest way to calculate Variance at the table?

Use our Variance simulator — it runs entirely in your browser, free, no signup.

Related terms

Equity
Your statistical share of the pot, expressed as a winning probability.
EV
The average profit/loss of a play over infinite repetitions.
Implied Odds
Pot odds adjusted for expected future bets if you hit your draw.
Outs
Cards remaining in the deck that improve your hand to a winner.

New to poker? Start with our preflop strategy guide and the free TAG cheatsheet.